Yeah, the people in my life who fully support the war basically have that attitude. Putin has no right to invade, period. So therefore, we just have to continue to fight him forever, basically.
Well stated position. I respect it. As for me, I'm a "Boomer" and Cold War Days Soldier and Civil Servant who believes that ... While this is a problem best dealt with by European Nations, Putin is an old School Soviet and will grab all he can. I find it interesting that the Vaunted Russian War Machine that we feared would come barrelling through the Fulda Gap can't seem to handle one of its former territories even with DPRK military assistance. I'm glad our current POTUS got members of NATO to kick in some more for their own defense and Germany seems to be taking it seriously.... Hopefully not to become an issue down the road. In closing I feel " with moderate confidence" that Poland, The Czech Republic and others have reason to be nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs. Putin is looking for signs of weakness..... But he doesn't have the means to start another incursion.
Whatever happens, I'm scoop up the next John Rain and/or Dox saga when it comes. Wishing you a Happy Holiday Season or.... Merry Christmas!
I like how you give some insight and then ask questions for others to ponder. This is a lot better than, ‘my opinion is…’, and it should allow for civil discussion. It doesn’t always—especially online—but it’s a good tactic.
I shared some overly tl;dr thoughts on one of your Facebook posts as a reply to someone accusing you of shilling for Putin.
I think we all have our own personal thoughts on which wars are just — or at least more justifiable. We all have exceptions in our heads. Even when, ultimately, it is pretty much impossible to find a clean instance of a ‘…a military solution that didn’t always end up as something worse’, to quote Sting.
I hope someday we learn. But I do worry. A lot. We aren’t just monkeys who learned to talk. We are also monkeys who learned how to split the atom, create viruses in labs, and create LLMs…
Thanks for all that Rob. I think I missed your FB post but will look for it. Don’t know why, but past a couple responses, FB arranges responses like it’s a scavenger hunt.
Oh, the FB post wasn’t directed at you, but someone asking how much Putin is paying you. It was a pretty long and poorly-organized diatribe. I was distracting myself while waiting for my wife to be discharged from the hospital and put way too much effort in providing some information for someone who didn’t want to take the time to look it up themselves. I don’t normally do that kind of thing anymore. Mostly pointless on social media. But thank you for the reply here.
A question, Barry: Why was Ukraine Putin's bright red line for war, rather than one of the earlier former Soviet states joining NATO? Is it because his invading those other state would bring NATO into the war and Ukraine wouldn't since it wasn't yet NATO? Or is it because of the historic association of Ukraine and Russia?
Hi Shane, the short answer is that the other states are less neuralgic (to use Bill Burns’s word) than Ukraine because of Ukraine’s proximity and history of being used to invade, and that when NATO began expanding in the late 90s (after promising not to), Russia was too weak to do more than protest (though the Russian government did protest, and seek assurances that the Baltic states at least would not have NATO weaponry on their soil). Recommend googling “Nyet Means Nyet,” and Section 5 of my primer for much more.
Thanks, Barry, for this and all the other answers. I read the primer a couple of times, and now want to go deep-diving for some of the history of the run-up to war. As always, it's rarely what the NYT and WaPo assert. Happy holidays, my friend.
For all your analysis, I feel that you are missing one key part of the story, the motivation of the Ukrainians. Why did they want to join NATO?
The obvious answer is because they felt in danger of being attacked, and therefore was looking for a way to stay safe, and becoming part of NATO would guarantee that.
This leads to two questions, first of all, were they really in danger of being attacked, and if so, would being part of NATO be the best choice to stay safe or would there be better options, like for example neutrality?
The problem with these questions is that they have already tried that and have seen the result. In 2010 the Ukrainian government voted to abandon the goal of NATO membership and re-affirm Ukraine's neutral status, essentially making the choice of not poking the bear. If Putin at this point had chosen to deepen trade relations with Ukraine, making them a key part of the Russian economy on the condition that they stayed neutral, there would have been zero interest in joining NATO and none of the following would have happened.
Instead he promptly invaded and annexed Crimea.
So the Ukrainians quickly learned that there was no safely in neutrality. Putin showed them that he was willing to invade them no matter how much they had complied with his demands, so what choice did they have?
Yeah, the people in my life who fully support the war basically have that attitude. Putin has no right to invade, period. So therefore, we just have to continue to fight him forever, basically.
Well stated position. I respect it. As for me, I'm a "Boomer" and Cold War Days Soldier and Civil Servant who believes that ... While this is a problem best dealt with by European Nations, Putin is an old School Soviet and will grab all he can. I find it interesting that the Vaunted Russian War Machine that we feared would come barrelling through the Fulda Gap can't seem to handle one of its former territories even with DPRK military assistance. I'm glad our current POTUS got members of NATO to kick in some more for their own defense and Germany seems to be taking it seriously.... Hopefully not to become an issue down the road. In closing I feel " with moderate confidence" that Poland, The Czech Republic and others have reason to be nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs. Putin is looking for signs of weakness..... But he doesn't have the means to start another incursion.
Whatever happens, I'm scoop up the next John Rain and/or Dox saga when it comes. Wishing you a Happy Holiday Season or.... Merry Christmas!
Thanks for all that Neal, working on the next Rain book now and will keep you posted…
I like how you give some insight and then ask questions for others to ponder. This is a lot better than, ‘my opinion is…’, and it should allow for civil discussion. It doesn’t always—especially online—but it’s a good tactic.
I shared some overly tl;dr thoughts on one of your Facebook posts as a reply to someone accusing you of shilling for Putin.
I think we all have our own personal thoughts on which wars are just — or at least more justifiable. We all have exceptions in our heads. Even when, ultimately, it is pretty much impossible to find a clean instance of a ‘…a military solution that didn’t always end up as something worse’, to quote Sting.
I hope someday we learn. But I do worry. A lot. We aren’t just monkeys who learned to talk. We are also monkeys who learned how to split the atom, create viruses in labs, and create LLMs…
Thanks for all that Rob. I think I missed your FB post but will look for it. Don’t know why, but past a couple responses, FB arranges responses like it’s a scavenger hunt.
Oh, the FB post wasn’t directed at you, but someone asking how much Putin is paying you. It was a pretty long and poorly-organized diatribe. I was distracting myself while waiting for my wife to be discharged from the hospital and put way too much effort in providing some information for someone who didn’t want to take the time to look it up themselves. I don’t normally do that kind of thing anymore. Mostly pointless on social media. But thank you for the reply here.
A question, Barry: Why was Ukraine Putin's bright red line for war, rather than one of the earlier former Soviet states joining NATO? Is it because his invading those other state would bring NATO into the war and Ukraine wouldn't since it wasn't yet NATO? Or is it because of the historic association of Ukraine and Russia?
Hi Shane, the short answer is that the other states are less neuralgic (to use Bill Burns’s word) than Ukraine because of Ukraine’s proximity and history of being used to invade, and that when NATO began expanding in the late 90s (after promising not to), Russia was too weak to do more than protest (though the Russian government did protest, and seek assurances that the Baltic states at least would not have NATO weaponry on their soil). Recommend googling “Nyet Means Nyet,” and Section 5 of my primer for much more.
https://barryeisler.substack.com/p/a-ukraine-war-primer
Thanks, Barry, for this and all the other answers. I read the primer a couple of times, and now want to go deep-diving for some of the history of the run-up to war. As always, it's rarely what the NYT and WaPo assert. Happy holidays, my friend.
For all your analysis, I feel that you are missing one key part of the story, the motivation of the Ukrainians. Why did they want to join NATO?
The obvious answer is because they felt in danger of being attacked, and therefore was looking for a way to stay safe, and becoming part of NATO would guarantee that.
This leads to two questions, first of all, were they really in danger of being attacked, and if so, would being part of NATO be the best choice to stay safe or would there be better options, like for example neutrality?
The problem with these questions is that they have already tried that and have seen the result. In 2010 the Ukrainian government voted to abandon the goal of NATO membership and re-affirm Ukraine's neutral status, essentially making the choice of not poking the bear. If Putin at this point had chosen to deepen trade relations with Ukraine, making them a key part of the Russian economy on the condition that they stayed neutral, there would have been zero interest in joining NATO and none of the following would have happened.
Instead he promptly invaded and annexed Crimea.
So the Ukrainians quickly learned that there was no safely in neutrality. Putin showed them that he was willing to invade them no matter how much they had complied with his demands, so what choice did they have?
That homeless man should have food, alas I must go home and bake chocolate chip cookies for the Christmas party and can not help him.